Recent News from Kurdistan

Yesterday I saw a disheartening news item re Iraq. It concerned reports that Iran has been shelling villages inside Iraqi Kurdistan in retaliation for Kurdish separatist activity inside Iran. The reason this upset me is it is a small sign that one of the true worst-case scenario for Iraq may be on the verge of unfolding. Not only is there a very serious danger of Iraq collapsing into civil war, but the danger exists that it may escalate into a regional war involving Iraq's neighbors. This would not only be a disaster for Iraq and its neighbors, but also for U.S. interests in the region.

I have been speaking out publicly on Iraq for a number of years now. I think the 1st time was November 2002, even before the invasion. I had helped organize a public meeting at New England College to discuss the mounting crisis over Iraq, and to try and convince people that "regime change" was a terrible idea. At that time, I identified 4 nightmare scenarios possible for Iraq: (1) collapse into civil war, (2) regional or proxy war involving Saudi Arabia and Iran, as each state takes sides in the Iraqi civil war, (3) destabilization of neighbor regimes due to a flood of refugees out of Iraq, and (4) a regional war over Kurdish separatism. Since then I've spoken on the same topics at at least a dozen venues, and had a few radio or TV appearances as well.

When I was in Baghdad in 2003 working on the election plan, I tried to discuss these issues with people there, but there seemed to be no interest at the top. Similarly when I was at the Dead Sea in 2005 working on Iraqi constitutional issues, the eye of the U.S. Embassy was entirely on meeting a series of pointless deadlines. The only logic seemed to be to have an Iraqi constitution and elections before the U.S. mid-term elections in 2006. In retrospect, it would have been much better for Iraq (and for us) if they had NOT finished their constitution or conducted elections, as this has fueled the civil war, which is a reality.

Now, indications are growing that factions inside Iraq are looking to their foreign patrons to support then as U.S. withdrawal is becoming more and more likely. The Shia Maliki government, and the parties that support it, are starting to cozy up to Iran, and the Sunni insurgents are increasingly turning to Saudi Arabia for support. It would not surprise me to see Iranian forces inside Iraq within a year (if they are not there now), nor will it surprise me to see Saudi Arabia bankrolling a spirited Sunni resistance (rumor has it they already are). What happens when they clash?

Millions of refugees have left Iraq for Syria and Jordan. These are small, poor countries. If something is not done to support these refugees there will be hell to pay as Jordan and Syria start to buckle under the load.

Last but not least, the Kurds. Turkey has already made very threatening noises against the Kurdish regime in northern Iraq. There even have been reports of Turkish troops entering Kurdistan. Now the Iranians are getting into the act?

Truly, I am ready to wash my hands of the entire U.S. foreign policy establishment. There seems to be NO ability on either side of the aisle to conceptualize the magnitude of the disaster we are facing. Where is the intelligence? Where is the principled opposition to insane policies? Where is congressional oversight? Has common sense completely abandoned us?